We Do Not Take Sides – We Take Notes
Covering armed conflict, strategic miscalculation, and the continued belief that this time will be different.
Efforts to de-escalate global tensions are ongoing and, by all observable measures, highly energetic. Leaders across multiple regions have reiterated their commitment to calm, restraint, and dialogue while simultaneously approving troop movements, expanding weapons deliveries, testing new systems, and clarifying—again—that none of this should be interpreted as provocative. The message has been consistent: everyone is …
Escalation ladders are not widely discussed, which is unfortunate, because nearly everyone is on one. An escalation ladder is not a dramatic object. It does not announce itself. It does not arrive labeled or fully assembled. It is constructed gradually, rung by rung, through actions described as prudent, defensive, and, above all, necessary. By the …
Strategic ambiguity has long been praised as a stabilizing force. It is credited with discouraging aggression, preventing miscalculation, and giving everyone involved just enough uncertainty to think twice. In theory, this uncertainty creates caution. In practice, it creates curiosity. The appeal is obvious. Clear commitments are binding. Clear red lines invite testing. Ambiguity, by contrast, …
Global conflict levels remain, by most official measures, manageable. This assessment is delivered with confidence, despite the steady crackle of sparks, the unmistakable smell of fuel, and the growing number of people standing very close to things they insist are not flammable. The powder keg, we are assured, remains intact. This reassurance is repeated often …